Synapolis Trading Hypotheses Ledger v1

Synapolis Trading Hypotheses Ledger v1

Created: 2026-05-22T11:29:17Z. Status: active non-execution ledger. This page records trading hypotheses as durable Synapolis knowledge. It does not authorize live trading, order placement/cancel/amend, fund movement, Stellar actions, executor changes, or secret exposure.

Canonical Local Artifacts

• Machine ledger: state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json
• Finance report: finance/reports/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.md
• User-readable report: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.md
• Wiki source: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.wiki

Schema

Each hypothesis entry must include:

• hypothesis_id
• date
• proposer_source
• statement
• rationale
• risk_bounds
• execution_non_execution_status
• evidence_sources
• required_approvals
• result_readback_fields
• status
• updates
• profit_mechanism
• market_assumptions
• fees_slippage_edge_condition
• validation_metrics
• falsification_criteria
• expected_synapolis_liquidity_contribution

Operating Rules

• Hypothesis recording is not live approval.
• Append new hypotheses; do not overwrite prior entries.
• Append evidence/readbacks to updates.
• Any trading hypothesis without an explicit profit mechanism and falsification criteria is incomplete/non-actionable, even if its inventory posture is clear.
• Live candidates require separate explicit user approval, exact risk bounds, reviewed execution path, and post-action readback.
• Do not include secrets, raw credentials, private keys, or unredacted sensitive order material.
• Stopped attempts remain part of the ledger as evidence.

Corrected Hypotheses

hyp-20260522-btc-derisk-001

Status: superseded_as_primary_hypothesis_retained_as_safety_cap_framing.

Correction: this is not the core trading hypothesis. It is retained only as an audit trail of a provisional canary/safety-cap framing. The user's correction supersedes the idea that the strategy is simply "sell BTC below 20%".

Original statement: reduce Bybit BTC exposure below the hard no-go threshold of 20% equity using a bounded one-shot BTCUSDC limit sell under explicit caps, without launching the liquidity engine or reactivating the legacy executor.

Risk bounds:

• Symbol: BTCUSDC spot.
• Side: sell BTC for USDC.
• Target exposure: <= 20% equity.
• Preferred exposure: <= 15% equity.
• No liquidity-engine launch.
• No legacy executor.
• No fund movement.
• No Stellar action.
• No broad strategy parameter changes.
• No execution without exact max quantity/notional, order type, slippage/limit bound, expiry, and kill-switch policy.

Evidence:

• Roadmap Wiki: Дорожная карта запуска торговой ликвидности Synapolis 2026, revid 712.
• Stop receipt: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-derisk-execution-stop-2026-05-22.md.
• Stop receipt JSON: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-derisk-execution-stop-2026-05-22.json.
• Approval packet draft: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-btc-derisk-approval-packet-2026-05-22.md.
• Kill-switch receipt: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-kill-switch-readiness-2026-05-22.md.

Required before execution:

• exact max BTC quantity and/or USDC notional;
• order type and limit/slippage bound;
• open-order cancel/amend permission and exact scope, if any;
• start/expiry UTC;
• partial-fill policy;
• kill-switch policy;
• reviewed one-shot de-risk executor path;
• post-action readback requirement.

Correction notes:

• 20% should be treated as a possible canary execution cap or monitor policy threshold, not as the main allocation target.
• Current BTC exposure around 44.46% may be near a rough 50/50 target and is not automatically wrong under the corrected hypothesis.
• Existing monitor policy may need recalibration to distinguish allocation target from execution risk caps.

hyp-20260522-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-001

Statement: maintain approximately balanced BTC and dollar liquidity, roughly 50/50 BTC versus USDC or dollar-equivalent inventory, as an inventory posture. The economic hypothesis is valid only if realized volatility / rebalance spread / grid edge from bounded liquidity migration exceeds fees, slippage, adverse selection, inventory beta, and drawdown costs over the evaluation window.

Rationale: 50/50 is not itself a profit source. It is an inventory posture intended to keep both BTC and dollar liquidity available so the system can repeatedly migrate liquidity between sides when price movement creates spread opportunity. The hypothesis must be evaluated by net realized edge after all costs, not by allocation appearance alone.

Profit mechanism:

• Capture realized volatility through bounded BTCUSDC rebalancing/grid cycles.
• Sell BTC into upward moves and buy BTC into downward moves while maintaining two-sided inventory.
• Profit must exceed exchange fees, slippage, adverse selection, inventory beta drag, drawdown costs, and operational costs.
• Holding 50/50 inventory alone is not a profit mechanism.

Market assumptions:

• BTCUSDC has enough two-sided realized volatility inside the chosen band.
• Spread/liquidity supports limit execution without excessive adverse selection.
• Price oscillates enough to complete cycles rather than trend one-way through inventory.
• Fees remain low enough relative to chosen step size.
• Read-only state and accounting are fresh enough to distinguish spread capture from BTC beta.

Fees/slippage edge condition:

• Required: net_realized_rebalance_spread_after_fees_slippage_and_adverse_selection > 0.
• Drawdown must stay inside approved limits.
• Preferred: fee plus slippage to gross spread below 0.50 for canary research and trending toward below 0.25 for scalable operation.
• Current warning: monitor fee/gain 1.026 remains no-go until recalibrated against corrected strategy metrics.

Current interpretation:

• Current BTC exposure around 44.46% may be close to a provisional 50/50 allocation target.
• The existing BYBIT_BTC_EXPOSURE_LIMIT critical alert may be policy-misaligned for this hypothesis.
• Allocation target and execution risk caps must be separated.

Provisional research bands:

• Balanced zone: 40-60% BTC value of equity.
• Review zone: 30-40% or 60-70%.
• Hard no-go: to be recalibrated; prior 20% may apply only to a specific canary execution cap, not to the strategy allocation target.

Required before execution:

• define target allocation precisely: BTC market value vs USDC/dollar-equivalent liquidity;
• approve tolerance bands around 50/50;
• approve execution risk caps distinct from allocation target;
• produce fee-aware rebalancing model;
• define bounded order sizing, slippage/limit rules, and open-order handling;
• define kill switch and daily readback;
• obtain explicit live approval before any order/cancel/amend.

Validation metrics:

• gross rebalance spread;
• fees in USDC equivalent;
• slippage estimate;
• adverse selection estimate;
• net rebalance edge;
• fee/slippage to gross spread ratio;
• completed rebalance cycles;
• inventory beta PnL;
• max drawdown;
• time in target band;
• stale state / missed cycle count;
• accounting reconciliation status.

Falsification criteria:

• Net realized rebalance/grid edge is <= 0 after fees/slippage across the agreed window.
• Fee plus slippage burden repeatedly consumes gross spread.
• PnL is mainly BTC directional beta rather than rebalance spread.
• Drawdown exceeds approved cap before sufficient realized edge appears.
• Inventory cannot remain within tolerance bands without oversized corrective trades.
• Accounting cannot reproducibly attribute spread, fees, beta, and transfers.

Expected Synapolis liquidity contribution / accounting route:

• Recognize only net realized rebalance/grid edge after fees and documented costs as candidate liquidity contribution.
• Keep inventory beta and unexplained deltas separate.
• Required evidence: fill/fee ledger, inventory time series, baseline equity snapshots, order lifecycle/readback receipts, fee/slippage estimate, and attribution note.

Status: primary_hypothesis_complete_economic_formulation_non_execution_research_needed.

Research update 2026-05-22T13:04:43Z:

• Research status: research_only_not_validated.
• Current BTC exposure: 44.50%, inside provisional 40-60% balanced inventory zone.
• Current ladder step: 579.5250 USDC / 0.7489%, too small for fee-aware edge.
• Candidate paper-only step zone: 1300-1400 USDC, about 1.68-1.81% at current read-only price.
• Candidate 5-level paper bands: 70881.5-83881.5 for 1300 step, 70381.5-84381.5 for 1400 step.
• Monitor recommendation: split allocation-target status from execution-risk status; prior 20% cap may be a canary execution cap, not the 50/50 allocation threshold.
• Full report: finance/reports/synapolis-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-economic-research-2026-05-22.md.

Evaluator update 2026-05-22T14:13:17Z:

• Non-executing evaluator implemented: scripts/trading/btc_usdc_balanced_liquidity_evaluator.py.
• Latest JSON: output_to_user/synapolis-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-evaluator-2026-05-22.json.
• Latest MD: output_to_user/synapolis-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-evaluator-2026-05-22.md.
• Latest status: not_validated.
• Current BTC exposure: 44.3945%, allocation status balanced_zone.
• Current ladder cost/gross: 57.3836%, fails research cost gate.
• Candidate 1300 step cost/gross: 25.5809%, passes research cost gate but remains unvalidated.
• Candidate 1400 step cost/gross: 23.7537%, passes research cost gate but remains unvalidated.
• Blockers: VALIDATION_WINDOW_TOO_SHORT, PASSIVE_BENCHMARK_TIME_SERIES_NOT_IMPLEMENTED, NO_LIVE_VALIDATION.

Rolling backtest update 2026-05-22T14:20:16Z:

• Non-executing backtester implemented: scripts/trading/btc_usdc_balanced_liquidity_backtester.py.
• Latest JSON: output_to_user/synapolis-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-backtest-2026-05-22.json.
• Latest MD: output_to_user/synapolis-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-backtest-2026-05-22.md.
• Forward-shadow log: state/bybit/btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-shadow-history.jsonl.
• History window: 2026-05-13T12:10:02Z to 2026-05-15T17:32:42Z, 641 snapshots.
• Active PnL: -49.3302 USDC.
• Passive same-inventory PnL: -5.6817 USDC.
• Passive 50/50 PnL: -58.9157 USDC.
• Active vs passive 50/50: +9.5855 USDC.
• Active vs same-inventory: -43.6485 USDC.
• Turnover: 3000.0000 USDC; fees: 3.9231 USDC; drawdown: 1.7232%; trades: 12.
• Status remains not_validated; falsification flag: ACTIVE_NET_PNL_NON_POSITIVE_IN_AVAILABLE_HISTORY.

VPS forward-shadow recorder update 2026-05-22T18:44:56Z:

• Installed non-executing recorder on Synapolis VPS: /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/scripts/btc_usdc_balanced_liquidity_backtester.py.
• Schedule: 4-59/5 * * * * as agent_arkhivolt user crontab, offset after the existing baseline snapshot cron.
• Inputs: /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/bybit_readonly_state.json and /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/bybit-grid-v3-market-baseline-history.json.
• Outputs: /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-shadow-history.jsonl, /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-backtest-latest.json, and /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-backtest-latest.md.
• VPS receipt: /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-shadow-status-2026-05-22.json; mirrored locally to output_to_user/synapolis-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-vps-shadow-status-2026-05-22.json.
• Latest shadow line: recorded 2026-05-22T18:43:51Z, state 2026-05-22T18:40:03Z, BTCUSDC price 76647.1, equity 7946.3678461, BTC exposure 44.2653%.
• Safety readback: all execution_confirmed flags are false; no live trading, order, cancel, amend, fund movement, Stellar action, or live executor change was performed.
• Status remains not_validated; this activates evidence accumulation only.

Max-window backtest update 2026-05-27T18:25:02Z:

• Dependency status: historical_backtest_dependency_resolved_for_research_readback_only.
• Window: 2026-05-13T12:10:02Z to 2026-05-27T18:25:02Z, 4108 rows.
• Source history: state/bybit/bybit-grid-v3-market-baseline-history.json.
• Result status: research_only_not_live_approved.

{{| class="wikitable" ! Variant !! Policy sketch !! Final equity proxy !! PnL !! Trades !! Readback |- | A || observed / no extra balancing || 7856.2218 || -160.2320 || 0 || baseline observed window |- | B || rebalance 40-60% to 50% || 7745.8661 || -270.5878 || 7 || bought BTC early from low exposure; underperformed in falling market |- | C || hard-cap to 20% if exposure >45% || 7934.7601 || -81.6938 || 1 || best in this bearish window only |- | D || fee-aware 40-60% || 7773.9412 || -242.5127 || 4 || still bought BTC early and lost in falling market |}}

Interpretation:

• Variant C won this observed bearish window, but this is not universal proof.
• Variants B and D lost because they accumulated BTC early from low exposure while the market kept falling.
• Variant C should be treated as a bearish one-way overlay / research assumption, not as approved live policy.
• Approval is still not granted; this update resolves one research dependency only.

Artifacts:

• /opt/agent-workspace/trading/analysis/bybit-btcusdc-balancing-hypothesis-paper-2026-05-27-max-window.md
• /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/bybit-btcusdc-balancing-hypothesis-paper-2026-05-27-max-window.json
• /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/bybit-btcusdc-balancing-hypothesis-paper-paths-2026-05-27-max-window.json

Projection/scenario update 2026-05-27T18:25:02Z:

• Projection status: research_scenario_projection_only_not_live_approved.
• Sample window: 2026-05-13T12:10:02Z to 2026-05-27T18:25:02Z.
• Initial equity proxy: 8016.4539.
• BTC path over sample: -7.1523%.

Scenario	A observed/no extra balancing	B 40-60 to 50%	C hard-cap to 20% if exposure >45%	D fee-aware 40-60
Naive annualized compounded	-40.3561%	-58.4745%	-23.0623%	-54.4455%
Naive 5y compounded	-92.4521%	-98.7653%	-73.0415%	-98.0382%
Neutral zero-edge annualized	0	0	0	0
Neutral zero-edge 5y	0	0	0	0
Adverse whipsaw annualized	0	-4.4028%	-22.2753%	-8.0216%
Adverse whipsaw 5y	0	-20.1591%	-71.6342%	-34.1693%

Interpretation:

• Variant C is downside protection in this bearish sample, not a yield engine.
• In a whipsaw/rebound scenario, C can be the worst of the tested overlays.
• Neutral zero-edge scenarios do not create return; all variants read back as 0 before costs/edge assumptions.
• This projection does not grant live approval and does not change order, fund, Stellar, or secret boundaries.

Artifacts:

• /opt/agent-workspace/trading/analysis/bybit-btcusdc-balancing-hypothesis-projection-2026-05-27.md
• /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/bybit-btcusdc-balancing-hypothesis-projection-2026-05-27.json

Stellar / cross-venue / path-arb

Update: 2026-05-28 Stellar opportunity surface scan

Status: research_candidates_only_no_proven_profitable_hypothesis_no_live_authorization.

Read-only scan result:

• Historical path-arb operation 269558297890177025 was positive at +0.2688189 XLM net after actual fee, proving temporary edge existed historically.
• Existing and fresh paper scans of that same fixed cycle are negative in the current public-Horizon state.
• Fresh direct-only replay of XLM -> USDC -> EURMTL -> MTL -> XLM now breaks because Horizon returns a non-direct path on USDC -> EURMTL; the best recomposed path also remains negative.
• No currently proven profitable Stellar trading hypothesis was established by this scan.

Research candidates promoted for next paper work:

• issuer-basis / trustline spread research across same-code assets with different issuers;
• generalized path / cross-venue mispricing scan beyond one fixed direct cycle;
• MTL/XLM pool-versus-orderbook monitoring.

Rejected or deprioritized for now:

• direct replay of the historical fixed cycle;
• standalone XLM -> USDC -> XLM;
• direct USDC -> MTL;
• LP/yield as the immediate next test;
• treasury/cash-management as a profit hypothesis.

Data gaps:

• time-series snapshots for MTL/XLM and EURMTL/MTL;
• trade-history vs stale-quote evidence;
• issuer admissibility / trustline map;
• depth ladder across sizes.

Artifacts:

• local report: /home/node/.ductor/workspace/trading/analysis/stellar-opportunity-scan-2026-05-28.md
• local JSON: /home/node/.ductor/workspace/state/stellar/stellar-opportunity-scan-2026-05-28.json
• VPS mirror report: /opt/agent-workspace/trading/analysis/stellar-opportunity-scan-2026-05-28.md
• VPS mirror JSON: /opt/agent-workspace/state/stellar/stellar-opportunity-scan-2026-05-28.json

Boundary reminder:

• no signing;
• no submission;
• no signer or treasury changes;
• no secrets;
• no fund movement;
• no cron/service mutation.

How Other Agents Should Append

Other Synapolis agents should read state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json, append a new object to hypotheses[] for new ideas, or append an item to an existing hypothesis updates[] list for new evidence/readbacks. Agents must cite stable local paths, Wiki revision IDs, or read-only monitor timestamps. They must not treat a hypothesis entry as authorization to trade. Any hypothesis without explicit profit mechanism and falsification criteria is incomplete/non-actionable.

Update: 2026-05-27 Bybit BTCUSDC live pilot approval draft

hyp-20260527-btcusdc-live-pilot-approval-draft-001

Statement: prepare one bounded BTCUSDC spot de-risk pilot draft for possible future manual approval while keeping execution disabled until explicit user approval and separate readiness closure.

Status: draft_not_approved. This entry is a draft record only and does not authorize live trading.

Pilot bounds:

• Mode: one_shot_bounded_derisk_pilot.
• Side / type / TIF: Sell / Limit / IOC.
• Max qty: 0.004000 BTC; max notional: 300.00 USDC.
• Min sell price: 75000.0; max state age: 15 minutes; max spread: 5 bps.
• Daily loss cap / max loss cap: 15.00 / 15.00 USDC.
• Execution gates: approval_required=true, execution_disabled_until_user_approval=true.

Blocking readback:

• Observed best bid 74627.5 is below min_sell_price 75000.0; the draft currently fails its own price guard even if later approved.
• Historical balancing validation is still pending; related backtest/readiness dependency: task 4f724e1c (Bybit BTCUSDC balancing hypothesis backtest).
• Balanced-liquidity readiness remains unvalidated, so this draft must not be interpreted as bot enablement or live authorization.

Artifacts:

• JSON: /opt/agent-workspace/state/bybit/bybit-btcusdc-live-pilot-approval-draft-2026-05-27.json.
• MD: /opt/agent-workspace/finance/reports/bybit-btcusdc-live-pilot-approval-draft-2026-05-27.md.
• SHA256: a6750a4515c093af63a8b46a42961fa18db4c5ad47d865d4222782a563cc90cb.