Synapolis Trading Hypotheses Ledger v1: Difference between revisions

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Create canonical non-execution trading hypotheses ledger v1
 
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Correct trading hypothesis framing: 50/50 BTC/USDC liquidity
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* Stopped attempts remain part of the ledger as evidence.
* Stopped attempts remain part of the ledger as evidence.


== First Recorded Hypothesis ==
== Corrected Hypotheses ==


=== hyp-20260522-btc-derisk-001 ===
=== hyp-20260522-btc-derisk-001 ===


Statement: reduce Bybit BTC exposure below the hard no-go threshold of <code>20%</code> equity using a bounded one-shot <code>BTCUSDC</code> limit sell under explicit caps, without launching the liquidity engine or reactivating the legacy executor.
Status: <code>superseded_as_primary_hypothesis_retained_as_safety_cap_framing</code>.


Rationale: Finance Monitor was <code>critical</code> with BTC exposure around <code>44.46%</code>. Canary readiness is blocked until exposure is brought below the hard no-go threshold.
Correction: this is not the core trading hypothesis. It is retained only as an audit trail of a provisional canary/safety-cap framing. The user's correction supersedes the idea that the strategy is simply "sell BTC below 20%".
 
Original statement: reduce Bybit BTC exposure below the hard no-go threshold of <code>20%</code> equity using a bounded one-shot <code>BTCUSDC</code> limit sell under explicit caps, without launching the liquidity engine or reactivating the legacy executor.


Risk bounds:
Risk bounds:
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* post-action readback requirement.
* post-action readback requirement.


Status: <code>recorded_stopped_pending_bounded_approval_and_safe_tool</code>.
Correction notes:
 
* <code>20%</code> should be treated as a possible canary execution cap or monitor policy threshold, not as the main allocation target.
* Current BTC exposure around <code>44.46%</code> may be near a rough 50/50 target and is not automatically wrong under the corrected hypothesis.
* Existing monitor policy may need recalibration to distinguish allocation target from execution risk caps.
 
=== hyp-20260522-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-001 ===
 
Statement: maintain approximately balanced BTC and dollar liquidity, roughly <code>50/50</code> BTC versus USDC or dollar-equivalent inventory, while earning or preserving liquidity through bounded rebalancing/grid/liquidity migration between the two sides.
 
Rationale: the economic hypothesis is balanced two-sided inventory, not one-way sell-down. A roughly balanced BTC/USDC inventory can provide liquidity and optionality while the system migrates inventory between BTC and dollars under explicit risk controls.
 
Current interpretation:
 
* Current BTC exposure around <code>44.46%</code> may be close to a provisional 50/50 allocation target.
* The existing <code>BYBIT_BTC_EXPOSURE_LIMIT</code> critical alert may be policy-misaligned for this hypothesis.
* Allocation target and execution risk caps must be separated.
 
Provisional research bands:
 
* Balanced zone: <code>40-60%</code> BTC value of equity.
* Review zone: <code>30-40%</code> or <code>60-70%</code>.
* Hard no-go: to be recalibrated; prior <code>20%</code> may apply only to a specific canary execution cap, not to the strategy allocation target.
 
Required before execution:
 
* define target allocation precisely: BTC market value vs USDC/dollar-equivalent liquidity;
* approve tolerance bands around <code>50/50</code>;
* approve execution risk caps distinct from allocation target;
* produce fee-aware rebalancing model;
* define bounded order sizing, slippage/limit rules, and open-order handling;
* define kill switch and daily readback;
* obtain explicit live approval before any order/cancel/amend.
 
Status: <code>primary_hypothesis_recorded_non_execution_research_needed</code>.


== How Other Agents Should Append ==
== How Other Agents Should Append ==


Other Synapolis agents should read <code>state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json</code>, append a new object to <code>hypotheses[]</code> for new ideas, or append an item to an existing hypothesis <code>updates[]</code> list for new evidence/readbacks. Agents must cite stable local paths, Wiki revision IDs, or read-only monitor timestamps. They must not treat a hypothesis entry as authorization to trade.
Other Synapolis agents should read <code>state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json</code>, append a new object to <code>hypotheses[]</code> for new ideas, or append an item to an existing hypothesis <code>updates[]</code> list for new evidence/readbacks. Agents must cite stable local paths, Wiki revision IDs, or read-only monitor timestamps. They must not treat a hypothesis entry as authorization to trade.

Revision as of 11:46, 22 May 2026

Synapolis Trading Hypotheses Ledger v1

Created: 2026-05-22T11:29:17Z. Status: active non-execution ledger. This page records trading hypotheses as durable Synapolis knowledge. It does not authorize live trading, order placement/cancel/amend, fund movement, Stellar actions, executor changes, or secret exposure.

Canonical Local Artifacts

  • Machine ledger: state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json
  • Finance report: finance/reports/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.md
  • User-readable report: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.md
  • Wiki source: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.wiki

Schema

Each hypothesis entry must include:

  • hypothesis_id
  • date
  • proposer_source
  • statement
  • rationale
  • risk_bounds
  • execution_non_execution_status
  • evidence_sources
  • required_approvals
  • result_readback_fields
  • status
  • updates

Operating Rules

  • Hypothesis recording is not live approval.
  • Append new hypotheses; do not overwrite prior entries.
  • Append evidence/readbacks to updates.
  • Live candidates require separate explicit user approval, exact risk bounds, reviewed execution path, and post-action readback.
  • Do not include secrets, raw credentials, private keys, or unredacted sensitive order material.
  • Stopped attempts remain part of the ledger as evidence.

Corrected Hypotheses

hyp-20260522-btc-derisk-001

Status: superseded_as_primary_hypothesis_retained_as_safety_cap_framing.

Correction: this is not the core trading hypothesis. It is retained only as an audit trail of a provisional canary/safety-cap framing. The user's correction supersedes the idea that the strategy is simply "sell BTC below 20%".

Original statement: reduce Bybit BTC exposure below the hard no-go threshold of 20% equity using a bounded one-shot BTCUSDC limit sell under explicit caps, without launching the liquidity engine or reactivating the legacy executor.

Risk bounds:

  • Symbol: BTCUSDC spot.
  • Side: sell BTC for USDC.
  • Target exposure: <= 20% equity.
  • Preferred exposure: <= 15% equity.
  • No liquidity-engine launch.
  • No legacy executor.
  • No fund movement.
  • No Stellar action.
  • No broad strategy parameter changes.
  • No execution without exact max quantity/notional, order type, slippage/limit bound, expiry, and kill-switch policy.

Evidence:

  • Roadmap Wiki: Дорожная карта запуска торговой ликвидности Synapolis 2026, revid 712.
  • Stop receipt: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-derisk-execution-stop-2026-05-22.md.
  • Stop receipt JSON: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-derisk-execution-stop-2026-05-22.json.
  • Approval packet draft: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-btc-derisk-approval-packet-2026-05-22.md.
  • Kill-switch receipt: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-kill-switch-readiness-2026-05-22.md.

Required before execution:

  • exact max BTC quantity and/or USDC notional;
  • order type and limit/slippage bound;
  • open-order cancel/amend permission and exact scope, if any;
  • start/expiry UTC;
  • partial-fill policy;
  • kill-switch policy;
  • reviewed one-shot de-risk executor path;
  • post-action readback requirement.

Correction notes:

  • 20% should be treated as a possible canary execution cap or monitor policy threshold, not as the main allocation target.
  • Current BTC exposure around 44.46% may be near a rough 50/50 target and is not automatically wrong under the corrected hypothesis.
  • Existing monitor policy may need recalibration to distinguish allocation target from execution risk caps.

hyp-20260522-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-001

Statement: maintain approximately balanced BTC and dollar liquidity, roughly 50/50 BTC versus USDC or dollar-equivalent inventory, while earning or preserving liquidity through bounded rebalancing/grid/liquidity migration between the two sides.

Rationale: the economic hypothesis is balanced two-sided inventory, not one-way sell-down. A roughly balanced BTC/USDC inventory can provide liquidity and optionality while the system migrates inventory between BTC and dollars under explicit risk controls.

Current interpretation:

  • Current BTC exposure around 44.46% may be close to a provisional 50/50 allocation target.
  • The existing BYBIT_BTC_EXPOSURE_LIMIT critical alert may be policy-misaligned for this hypothesis.
  • Allocation target and execution risk caps must be separated.

Provisional research bands:

  • Balanced zone: 40-60% BTC value of equity.
  • Review zone: 30-40% or 60-70%.
  • Hard no-go: to be recalibrated; prior 20% may apply only to a specific canary execution cap, not to the strategy allocation target.

Required before execution:

  • define target allocation precisely: BTC market value vs USDC/dollar-equivalent liquidity;
  • approve tolerance bands around 50/50;
  • approve execution risk caps distinct from allocation target;
  • produce fee-aware rebalancing model;
  • define bounded order sizing, slippage/limit rules, and open-order handling;
  • define kill switch and daily readback;
  • obtain explicit live approval before any order/cancel/amend.

Status: primary_hypothesis_recorded_non_execution_research_needed.

How Other Agents Should Append

Other Synapolis agents should read state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json, append a new object to hypotheses[] for new ideas, or append an item to an existing hypothesis updates[] list for new evidence/readbacks. Agents must cite stable local paths, Wiki revision IDs, or read-only monitor timestamps. They must not treat a hypothesis entry as authorization to trade.

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