Synapolis Trading Hypotheses Ledger v1

Created: 2026-05-22T11:29:17Z. Status: active non-execution ledger. This page records trading hypotheses as durable Synapolis knowledge. It does not authorize live trading, order placement/cancel/amend, fund movement, Stellar actions, executor changes, or secret exposure.

Canonical Local Artifacts

Machine ledger: state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json
Finance report: finance/reports/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.md
User-readable report: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.md
Wiki source: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.wiki

Schema

Each hypothesis entry must include:

hypothesis_id
date
proposer_source
statement
rationale
risk_bounds
execution_non_execution_status
evidence_sources
required_approvals
result_readback_fields
status
updates

Operating Rules

Hypothesis recording is not live approval.
Append new hypotheses; do not overwrite prior entries.
Append evidence/readbacks to updates.
Live candidates require separate explicit user approval, exact risk bounds, reviewed execution path, and post-action readback.
Do not include secrets, raw credentials, private keys, or unredacted sensitive order material.
Stopped attempts remain part of the ledger as evidence.

Corrected Hypotheses

hyp-20260522-btc-derisk-001

Status: superseded_as_primary_hypothesis_retained_as_safety_cap_framing.

Correction: this is not the core trading hypothesis. It is retained only as an audit trail of a provisional canary/safety-cap framing. The user's correction supersedes the idea that the strategy is simply "sell BTC below 20%".

Original statement: reduce Bybit BTC exposure below the hard no-go threshold of 20% equity using a bounded one-shot BTCUSDC limit sell under explicit caps, without launching the liquidity engine or reactivating the legacy executor.

Risk bounds:

Symbol: BTCUSDC spot.
Side: sell BTC for USDC.
Target exposure: <= 20% equity.
Preferred exposure: <= 15% equity.
No liquidity-engine launch.
No legacy executor.
No fund movement.
No Stellar action.
No broad strategy parameter changes.
No execution without exact max quantity/notional, order type, slippage/limit bound, expiry, and kill-switch policy.

Evidence:

Roadmap Wiki: Дорожная карта запуска торговой ликвидности Synapolis 2026, revid 712.
Stop receipt: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-derisk-execution-stop-2026-05-22.md.
Stop receipt JSON: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-derisk-execution-stop-2026-05-22.json.
Approval packet draft: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-btc-derisk-approval-packet-2026-05-22.md.
Kill-switch receipt: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-kill-switch-readiness-2026-05-22.md.

Required before execution:

exact max BTC quantity and/or USDC notional;
order type and limit/slippage bound;
open-order cancel/amend permission and exact scope, if any;
start/expiry UTC;
partial-fill policy;
kill-switch policy;
reviewed one-shot de-risk executor path;
post-action readback requirement.

Correction notes:

20% should be treated as a possible canary execution cap or monitor policy threshold, not as the main allocation target.
Current BTC exposure around 44.46% may be near a rough 50/50 target and is not automatically wrong under the corrected hypothesis.
Existing monitor policy may need recalibration to distinguish allocation target from execution risk caps.

hyp-20260522-btc-usdc-balanced-liquidity-001

Statement: maintain approximately balanced BTC and dollar liquidity, roughly 50/50 BTC versus USDC or dollar-equivalent inventory, while earning or preserving liquidity through bounded rebalancing/grid/liquidity migration between the two sides.

Rationale: the economic hypothesis is balanced two-sided inventory, not one-way sell-down. A roughly balanced BTC/USDC inventory can provide liquidity and optionality while the system migrates inventory between BTC and dollars under explicit risk controls.

Current interpretation:

Current BTC exposure around 44.46% may be close to a provisional 50/50 allocation target.
The existing BYBIT_BTC_EXPOSURE_LIMIT critical alert may be policy-misaligned for this hypothesis.
Allocation target and execution risk caps must be separated.

Provisional research bands:

Balanced zone: 40-60% BTC value of equity.
Review zone: 30-40% or 60-70%.
Hard no-go: to be recalibrated; prior 20% may apply only to a specific canary execution cap, not to the strategy allocation target.

Required before execution:

define target allocation precisely: BTC market value vs USDC/dollar-equivalent liquidity;
approve tolerance bands around 50/50;
approve execution risk caps distinct from allocation target;
produce fee-aware rebalancing model;
define bounded order sizing, slippage/limit rules, and open-order handling;
define kill switch and daily readback;
obtain explicit live approval before any order/cancel/amend.

Status: primary_hypothesis_recorded_non_execution_research_needed.

How Other Agents Should Append

Other Synapolis agents should read state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json, append a new object to hypotheses[] for new ideas, or append an item to an existing hypothesis updates[] list for new evidence/readbacks. Agents must cite stable local paths, Wiki revision IDs, or read-only monitor timestamps. They must not treat a hypothesis entry as authorization to trade.