Synapolis Trading Hypotheses Ledger v1

Created: 2026-05-22T11:29:17Z. Status: active non-execution ledger. This page records trading hypotheses as durable Synapolis knowledge. It does not authorize live trading, order placement/cancel/amend, fund movement, Stellar actions, executor changes, or secret exposure.

Canonical Local Artifacts

Machine ledger: state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json
Finance report: finance/reports/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.md
User-readable report: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.md
Wiki source: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.wiki

Schema

Each hypothesis entry must include:

hypothesis_id
date
proposer_source
statement
rationale
risk_bounds
execution_non_execution_status
evidence_sources
required_approvals
result_readback_fields
status
updates

Operating Rules

Hypothesis recording is not live approval.
Append new hypotheses; do not overwrite prior entries.
Append evidence/readbacks to updates.
Live candidates require separate explicit user approval, exact risk bounds, reviewed execution path, and post-action readback.
Do not include secrets, raw credentials, private keys, or unredacted sensitive order material.
Stopped attempts remain part of the ledger as evidence.

First Recorded Hypothesis

hyp-20260522-btc-derisk-001

Statement: reduce Bybit BTC exposure below the hard no-go threshold of 20% equity using a bounded one-shot BTCUSDC limit sell under explicit caps, without launching the liquidity engine or reactivating the legacy executor.

Rationale: Finance Monitor was critical with BTC exposure around 44.46%. Canary readiness is blocked until exposure is brought below the hard no-go threshold.

Risk bounds:

Symbol: BTCUSDC spot.
Side: sell BTC for USDC.
Target exposure: <= 20% equity.
Preferred exposure: <= 15% equity.
No liquidity-engine launch.
No legacy executor.
No fund movement.
No Stellar action.
No broad strategy parameter changes.
No execution without exact max quantity/notional, order type, slippage/limit bound, expiry, and kill-switch policy.

Evidence:

Roadmap Wiki: Дорожная карта запуска торговой ликвидности Synapolis 2026, revid 712.
Stop receipt: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-derisk-execution-stop-2026-05-22.md.
Stop receipt JSON: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-derisk-execution-stop-2026-05-22.json.
Approval packet draft: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-btc-derisk-approval-packet-2026-05-22.md.
Kill-switch receipt: output_to_user/synapolis-trading-roadmap-kill-switch-readiness-2026-05-22.md.

Required before execution:

exact max BTC quantity and/or USDC notional;
order type and limit/slippage bound;
open-order cancel/amend permission and exact scope, if any;
start/expiry UTC;
partial-fill policy;
kill-switch policy;
reviewed one-shot de-risk executor path;
post-action readback requirement.

Status: recorded_stopped_pending_bounded_approval_and_safe_tool.

How Other Agents Should Append

Other Synapolis agents should read state/finance/synapolis-trading-hypotheses-ledger-v1.json, append a new object to hypotheses[] for new ideas, or append an item to an existing hypothesis updates[] list for new evidence/readbacks. Agents must cite stable local paths, Wiki revision IDs, or read-only monitor timestamps. They must not treat a hypothesis entry as authorization to trade.